Enduring the Heat: How Weather & Climate Changes are Shifting Consumer Behavior

If the relentless heat of the past few months has left you seeking relief, you’re not alone. Over half of the US (58%) reports higher temperatures than in previous years, and there’s a clear reason behind it. June 2024 extended a streak of record-hot months globally, with the NOAA confirming it as the hottest June since 1850. This trend is mirrored in the US, where parts of the West, South, and Northeast experienced their warmest June nights on record. Adding to the climate woes, four new billion-dollar weather and climate disasters were confirmed in June alone totaling 15 disasters year-to-date.

As temperatures rise and natural storms increase, Numerator reveals how these changes are reshaping consumer purchasing behaviors.

Sweating the change: How does weather impact consumer behavior and sales?

Climate change is leaving a significant mark on consumer habits, particularly in the sectors of consumer packaged goods (CPG) and general merchandise. Numerator’s research shows that in categories like grocery, household supplies, and health & beauty, over 1 in 10 (14%) major categories can attribute over a fifth of their consumption variance to temperature changes (i.e. R² >0.2). For general merchandise, including automotive, home & garden, and tools & home improvement, this figure rises to 16%.

Certain categories show even stronger relationships to weather impacting consumer behavior. Sales of ice cream cones and roach bait spike in warmer weather as households cool off and roach activity heightens. Conversely, barley and humidifiers see increased demand during cooler conditions as households cook soups and indoor humidity dries up. In these cases, over half of the consumption variance can be traced back to temperature changes.

Source: Numerator (Units Change) and National Centers for Environmental Information (Temperature Change)

Fast food also experiences similar relationships to temperature dynamics. Expectedly, dessert shops such as Dairy Queen and Baskin-Robbins saw over half of their traffic variance (57%) explained by moving temperatures. Traffic is also up by 7% in June 2024 compared to last year. Interestingly, salad & health-focused chains such as Jamba Juice and Salad and Go also saw strong relationships.

In our qualitative interviews, several respondents shared not wanting to cook as much at home given the heat of a stove adding to the ambient temperature of a house. “I buy more food that can be grilled or made in the slower cooker to avoid turning on the stove. I also buy less heavy foods. The heat makes me want to eat less,” said a couple in the Midwest. “Household purchases usually remain the same year-round. However, I do go out for meals more often in the summer… [It’s] too hot to heat up my own kitchen,” said another in the Northeast.

Understanding these seasonal dynamics is crucial for brands and retailers to time their promotions and seasonal sets effectively. Nearly 18% of consumers report using weather cues to decide when to start holiday shopping or decorating. Brands that fail to adapt to these shifting weather patterns risk missing out on consumer demand. For instance, households claiming to experience hotter temperatures this year spent 15% more on ice in June 2024 compared to the national average. Alcoholic beverages also saw a 27% increase in household spending, highlighting the lengths people will go to stay cool.

Consumer response: How do natural disasters impact consumer behavior?

The increasing frequency of significant natural disasters in the US is reshaping consumer purchasing behavior. In 2023, there were 28 billion-dollar weather and climate disasters, with 15 already recorded in 2024. These events significantly affect how and what consumers buy.

Leading up to natural disasters, households stock up on durable goods like building tools (+18% in projected households), automotive tools (+17%), and lighters (+14%). Consumables such as nutrition bars and ice also see increased demand as consumers prepare for power outages and refrigeration challenges. This trend stays relatively consistent the week of the event. Purchases shift in the immediate aftermath, focusing on repair tools and refrigerated foods as households fix up broken fences and restock the fridge.

Thankfully, preparedness is a key concern for many Americans. A third of consumers (34%) feel very or extremely prepared for natural disasters, with higher preparedness levels in the South (nearly 40%). Common emergency supplies include flashlights (65% of households), first aid kits (58%), water (58%), batteries (58%), and non-perishable foods (47%). Southern households, frequently hit by hurricanes, are 27% more likely to restock their emergency kits multiple times a year. Overall, this should come as no surprise, as the South has experienced 87% of landfall hurricanes since 1851.

The Future State of Weather: How will climate change affect future behaviors? 

As temperatures continue to climb, the implications for brands, retailers, and consumers are becoming imperative. Supply chains and demand forecasting must evolve to handle increasingly unpredictable weather patterns. For instance, the rise in extreme weather events means brands in general merchandise and durable goods sectors may need to shift from traditional seasonal cycles to year-round readiness.

With the US trending toward warmer temperatures, brands focused on cold-weather products face existential threats. Leaders may need to pivot their product lines to align with meteorological trends. Despite these challenges, brands and retailers have an opportunity to dictate to consumers when winter shopping should happen. Over two-fifths of consumers (43%) begin winter holiday shopping upon seeing related promotions, underscoring the importance of timely retail events.

Regional temperature increases require targeted marketing strategies for marketing ROI to be fully realized. The Midwest and Northeast have seen temperature jumps of 5-6 degrees Fahrenheit above historical averages. Leaders can consider localized marketing efforts for brands sensitive to seasonal changes.

Tangentially, understanding population shifts driven by climate concerns is crucial. Thirty percent of Americans have considered or already relocated due to climate-related issues, with 15% of households living in the West and 13% in the South today saying they have moved in the past due to weather.

"I am actually in the process of moving back to North Carolina where I grew up," said a Florida resident in a recent qualitative interview with Numerator. "It is a better climate to live in there and it has summer, fall, winter and spring. Florida has gotten so hot to the point where it's uncomfortable and I don't even want to go outside. I definitely think that it makes more sense to migrate north." These demographic changes will shape regional marketing and distribution strategies for brands, and where consumers will shop for retailers.

In a world of evolving weather patterns, businesses must leverage consumer data to forecast changes in consumption and adjust their portfolios accordingly. Retailers must rethink their planograms and regional footprint to stay ahead in a climate-driven marketplace. The way weather impacts consumer behavior reminds business leaders to connect macrotrend data and consumer data to find relationships in explaining unseasonal purchasing patterns throughout the year.