Chocolate lovers may need to brace themselves—cocoa prices are rising, and brands are feeling the squeeze. While the global cocoa shortage has disrupted supply chains and driven up costs, consumer awareness of the shortage remains low. According to a recent Numerator Verified Voices survey, over half (54%) of consumers are unaware of the cocoa shortage and three in four consumers say they haven’t noticed changes in quality or taste. Most consumers don’t plan to change their chocolate purchasing habits, but how will shopper behavior shift as prices continue to climb?
Awareness vs. Action: Will Shoppers Change Their Habits?
Despite media attention on cocoa supply issues, only 2 in 10 consumers have encountered a shortage of their favorite chocolate products. Those who have faced availability issues are adapting in various ways and shifting their shopper behavior. Some are switching brands, with 37.6% purchasing a different chocolate brand, while 26.7% have opted for a different type of sweet snack. Others are taking extra steps to find their preferred product, with 23.8% visiting another store and 16.3% delaying their purchase until the product is restocked. However, the majority—70.8%—report that the shortage has not influenced their purchasing behavior yet.
Although most shoppers recognize that chocolate prices are rising, only 33% have reduced their purchases in response. In general, 55% of consumers consider chocolate to be “somewhat expensive,” while 8% describe it as “very expensive.” Price thresholds also play a key role in purchasing decisions, as most consumers are willing to pay between $1-$3 per bar before considering alternatives. However, if brands were to offer promotions or discounts, two-thirds of these consumers would be more likely to purchase chocolate on promotion or discount.
Seeking Solutions: Promotions, Discounts, and Alternatives
Over half (54%) indicate they will reduce their overall chocolate consumption, while 43% will seek out promotions and discounts. Some will switch to less expensive brands (31%), and 15% of consumers are open to purchasing in bulk to save costs. When considering alternatives, cookies and pastries are the most popular replacements, with 49% and 34% of consumers willing to try them, respectively. White chocolate, fruit snacks, and carob chocolates are also on the list of alternatives— but with significantly lower consumer interest.
Brand Transparency: A Key to Consumer Loyalty
As price hikes become inevitable, brands need to be upfront with shoppers. Transparency is key—60% of consumers say it’s important for chocolate brands to communicate the reasons behind rising prices. Additionally, 50% of shoppers indicate they will continue purchasing premium chocolate products despite increased costs, showing that quality and brand trust still influence their purchasing decisions.
The Sweet Spot for Brands
By leveraging first-party consumer data, chocolate brands can carefully navigate shifting consumer behaviors as the cocoa shortage evolves. Whether by offering strategic promotions, maintaining transparency, or providing affordable alternatives, brands must adapt to market realities to retain loyal customers.
At Numerator, we help brands overcome supply chain shortages by combining omnichannel purchase data with comprehensive promotions data and direct feedback from consumers based on their verified behaviors. Want to learn more about how your brands’ consumers will adapt to price changes in the chocolate category? Reach out to our team today to learn more.
