Numerator Consumer Goods Price Index (CGPI)
The index provides an advance read on U.S. inflation trends across everyday consumer goods (not including gas), grounded in what people are actually buying. This consumer-centric view of inflation provides data segmented by income level, generation, and census region. Built on verified buyer data, the index captures price changes and how purchasing behavior shifts in response. The Numerator CGPI closely tracks the PCE Food & Beverage index while offering added visibility into real-world consumer behavior.
Latest Update: 8/11/2026
Next Update: 9/10/2026
Latest Findings: July 2026
ANNUAL INFLATION
+2.6%
YoY change in prices for everyday household purchases
MONTHLY INFLATION
-0.4%
MoM change in prices for everyday household purchases
CONSUMER SENTIMENT
39%
say rising prices are the top concern for the year ahead
- Prices for everyday household goods are up 2.6% over the past 12 months as annual inflation cooled in July following three consecutive months of acceleration.
- Month-over-month prices for everyday household goods decelerated in July 2026, decreasing by 0.4% after a 0.7% increase in June 2026.
- Low-income and Gen Z consumers continue to experience higher levels of inflation for everyday household goods, as prices have increased 35.1% and 39.0%, respectively, for those groups since January 2018 vs. the 33.2% national average.
- Low-income and Gen Z consumers are experiencing higher inflation in part because they spend more on quick-service restaurants than the average consumer. Quick-service restaurant prices have increased 53.9% since January 2018, well above the 33.2% rise across the overall consumer basket.
- Consumers in the South census region experienced higher levels of inflation since 2018, however that gap closed in July.
- Inflation may be cooling, but consumers aren’t feeling much relief. In Numerator’s July 2026 Economic Sentiment Tracker of over 2,000 U.S. consumers, 39% identified rising prices as their top concern for the coming year, nearly matching the record high reached in May 2026. Numerator has tracked consumer sentiment and financial outlook monthly since January 2024.
Inflation Trends, Overall
Inflation Trends, By Demographics
Income
Generations
U.S. Census Regions
Methodology
Numerator’s consumer inflation measure is constructed using both base-period and current-period quantity weights to combine item prices, an approach that shares structural similarities with the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis’ PCE Price Index. Numerator’s Consumer Goods Price Index index reflects what consumers actually purchased in each period, using verified household transactions rather than fixed baskets or survey-modeled weights used by traditional inflation measures.
The index is calculated from an average of approximately 7 million verified, item-level transactions each month provided by a panel of 200,000 geographically and demographically representative U.S. households. These data include purchases across categories such as grocery, household goods, and health and beauty. Since the index uses receipt-level purchase data, Numerator’s CGPI reflects the actual prices consumers pay after promotions, coupons, and loyalty discounts are applied. The data capture changes in consumer purchasing behavior when prices change, including brand switching, downsizing, and shifts in where consumers buy in real-time.
Values are aggregated monthly to produce index levels and month-over-month and year-over-year percent changes, providing a current view of inflation trends that can be viewed across demographic groups to explain how inflation is experienced across different segments of the population.
The Numerator CGPI’s year-over-year inflation measure has a 0.93 correlation with the PCE Food and Beverage index since 2019.
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